Its that time of year again where standings in the AP, Coaches and RPI rankings begin to matter, especially if your a.) on the bubble or b.) trying for a number one seed. Well, thankfully, Clyde is gone and we're no longer on the bubble (we'll never get tired of throwing cheap shots at Billy G), but now we are looking for that elusive number one seed and an easier path to the Final Four. While the uneducated fan might feel like a number one seed is a forgone conclusion this year, that's not necessarily true. Kentucky is 3rd in the Coaches Poll, 4th in the AP, and 7th in the RPI, and they're probably on the borderline between a #1 seed or sinking to a #2.
The RPI has been a equalizer used by the NCAA Selection Committee to separate teams that are bunched together with similar resumes. Coach Cal is on the record as being someone very concerned with the RPI because of this. If my internet research is correct, the basic formula used to determine the RPI is 25% team winning percentage, 50% opponents' average winning percentage, and 25% opponents' opponents' average winning percentage. Strength of schedule and quality of conference gives weight in certain areas, as well. In this week's RPI standings, Kansas, Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova, Duke and West Virginia are all ranked higher than Kentucky.
The problem Kentucky faces right now is the strength of schedule. Currently, our SOS is 58. Thanks to conference play, it has steadily increased in the past few weeks, but as you can clearly see, we still have a lot of ground to make up in the next month. We can thank our big non-conference opponents for this since they're all having less than stellar years. North Carolina, UConn, and Louisville have all struggled, so what should have been jewels in our NCAA crown have become thorns. However, we still have two games with Tennessee, and one more with Vandy, which will help that SOS number get stronger, regardless of the outcome.
If Kentucky takes care of business, we should be able to maintain that last number one seed, and with a few lucky breaks, might actually get back in contention for the overall top seed. However, if some of those breaks end up being unlucky, we could very easily fall into the second group on Selection Sunday. Its really too early to tell for sure, but its worth keeping an eye on this sort of thing moving forward.
The RPI has been a equalizer used by the NCAA Selection Committee to separate teams that are bunched together with similar resumes. Coach Cal is on the record as being someone very concerned with the RPI because of this. If my internet research is correct, the basic formula used to determine the RPI is 25% team winning percentage, 50% opponents' average winning percentage, and 25% opponents' opponents' average winning percentage. Strength of schedule and quality of conference gives weight in certain areas, as well. In this week's RPI standings, Kansas, Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova, Duke and West Virginia are all ranked higher than Kentucky.
The problem Kentucky faces right now is the strength of schedule. Currently, our SOS is 58. Thanks to conference play, it has steadily increased in the past few weeks, but as you can clearly see, we still have a lot of ground to make up in the next month. We can thank our big non-conference opponents for this since they're all having less than stellar years. North Carolina, UConn, and Louisville have all struggled, so what should have been jewels in our NCAA crown have become thorns. However, we still have two games with Tennessee, and one more with Vandy, which will help that SOS number get stronger, regardless of the outcome.
If Kentucky takes care of business, we should be able to maintain that last number one seed, and with a few lucky breaks, might actually get back in contention for the overall top seed. However, if some of those breaks end up being unlucky, we could very easily fall into the second group on Selection Sunday. Its really too early to tell for sure, but its worth keeping an eye on this sort of thing moving forward.
The Top 4 has really moved away from the pack in recent weeks. I think those four teams (Kansas, Villanova, Syracuse & Kentucky) have the best chance to get the 1 seeds. If Texas can right the ship they'll be in the conversation too, but they are on the outside looking in right now.
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