I recently came across this article on CNNSI.com, in which the author repeats something we seem to hear every single year, that the upcoming NBA draft is weak overall. I can remember the same junk reported last year, with NBA scouts talking about how it was one of the worst Draft's in history (as well as predicting the 2010 draft would be loaded). This season's rookie class has proven to be solid, and this year's draft will do the same.
Is this class going to rival some of the all time great classes? No, it's not. The three best draft's of all time are probably 1984 (MJ, Hakeem the Dream, John Stockton, and Charles Barkley), 1996 (Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson, Ray Allen, and Steve Nash), and 2003 (LeBron, Melo, D-Wade and Chris Bosh). Those three classes are probably safe for another ten years or so. They are the exception and not the rules. They might happen occasionally, but it is just dumb to let those classes be the standard to which mortal classes are compared.
This years crop of new talent is going to bring one super duper star (John Wall), as well as several players that have some potential star power (Evan Turner, Demarcus Cousins, and Wesley Johnson) It is a bunch that I believe has all the ingredients needed to be an average class, with a chance to slip up to the 60th-70th percentile if a couple foreign guys and a couple tremendous upsider potential types develop into something.
The NBA will be in great shape for years to come if they have ten classes just like this one, before the next gold mine is struck and several great players break in at the same time. I am annoyed by the laziness of thought that leads to the same story every year about the weakness of incoming talent. When I look across the landscape of college basketball, I see a lot of talent that is going to populate the 2010 draft.
With that said, I thought I'd take a look at where I see that talent stacking up. I am not qualified to include any International players, so I will leave that to somebody else. Also, I cut off the draft after #20 because that is an even number, and is about where there starts to be a big difference in NBA teams level of play. When you start looking at what the top ten NBA teams are going to do in the draft there is almost no way of knowing what direction they might go, especially when teams routinely sell their picks for financial breathing room.
1. New Jersey - John Wall, Kentucky (The first John Wall)
2. Minnesota - Evan Turner, Ohio State (Slightly poor man's version of Brandon Roy)
3. Golden State - Demarcus Cousins, Kentucky (Rasheed Wallace/ Stronger and better version of Joakim Noah)
4. Detroit - Wesley Johnson, Syracuse (Rudy Gay/Sane Stephen Jackson)
5. Indiana - Cole Aldrich, Kansas (Midwestern Joel Pryzbilla. Larry Bird won't be able to resist his whiteness).
6. Philadelphia - Derek Favors, Ga Tech (Might be good someday, hard to say)
7. Washington - Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest (There have been a lot of these guys lately doing pretty well with the uptick in tempo.. Can't have too many 6'8 athletes)
8. Sacramento - Patrick Patterson, Kentucky (Carl Landry/Jeff Green.. Can start for a good team or play significant role off bench for an elite team)
9. Utah - Greg Monroe, Georgetown (Will be a good role player because of his athletic gifts combined with his unselfishness.. Hope he slips to OKC so he can watch Durant shoot for the next ten years.. If he develops a killer instinct he could be a steal)
10. LA Clippers - Damion James, Texas (He and Blake Griffin would be fun to watch together)
11. Milwaukee - Xavier Henry, Kansas (I don't really think he will be all that good really, but he will probably go higher than he should)
12. Houston - Ed Davis, UNC (Seems like one of those guys that won't help the team that drafts him, but might end up pretty good)
13. Memphis - Avery Bradley, Texas (Just can't see him as anything more than a gunner off the bench for a good team. Has some ability, but is a tweener.)
14. OK City- Craig Brackins, Iowa State (Gotta think OKC will be looking for a big body here.. I expect OKC to do something smart though, their GM has done a great job with that team)
15. Miami - Eric Bledsoe, Kentucky (He is just as quick as John Wall, and quite a bit stronger.. Hasn't figured everything out yet, but has every physical gift.. Could easily see him going a lot higher if a team falls for him in the top ten)
16. Chicago - Stanley Robinson, UConn (Seems like he just woke up and realized he is a Senior. He is starting to figure out how to use his athletic talent. Another one of those 6'8 athlete's to take a flyer on.)
17. Minnesota - Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati (Could be next Tyreke Evans, or not ever play in the NBA... Will be interesting to see if he finds the right fit.)
18. Miami - Willie Warren, Oklahoma (See Avery Bradley.)
19. New Orleans - Trevor Booker, Clemson (Energy guy off the bench.)
20. Oklahoma City - James Anderson, OK State
Devan Downey is something of a mystery to me. I don't understand why he doesn't get more love. I can definitely see somebody taking him to be their backup PG and a sparkplug off the bench.
I think the percieved weakness of this draft can be tied to the lack of development of guys like Ed Davis, Xavier Henry and Willie Warren. Those are some of the guys that haven't gotten the most out of their abilities and are creating a cloud of gloom and doom that this draft is weak.
Is this class going to rival some of the all time great classes? No, it's not. The three best draft's of all time are probably 1984 (MJ, Hakeem the Dream, John Stockton, and Charles Barkley), 1996 (Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson, Ray Allen, and Steve Nash), and 2003 (LeBron, Melo, D-Wade and Chris Bosh). Those three classes are probably safe for another ten years or so. They are the exception and not the rules. They might happen occasionally, but it is just dumb to let those classes be the standard to which mortal classes are compared.
This years crop of new talent is going to bring one super duper star (John Wall), as well as several players that have some potential star power (Evan Turner, Demarcus Cousins, and Wesley Johnson) It is a bunch that I believe has all the ingredients needed to be an average class, with a chance to slip up to the 60th-70th percentile if a couple foreign guys and a couple tremendous upsider potential types develop into something.
The NBA will be in great shape for years to come if they have ten classes just like this one, before the next gold mine is struck and several great players break in at the same time. I am annoyed by the laziness of thought that leads to the same story every year about the weakness of incoming talent. When I look across the landscape of college basketball, I see a lot of talent that is going to populate the 2010 draft.
With that said, I thought I'd take a look at where I see that talent stacking up. I am not qualified to include any International players, so I will leave that to somebody else. Also, I cut off the draft after #20 because that is an even number, and is about where there starts to be a big difference in NBA teams level of play. When you start looking at what the top ten NBA teams are going to do in the draft there is almost no way of knowing what direction they might go, especially when teams routinely sell their picks for financial breathing room.
1. New Jersey - John Wall, Kentucky (The first John Wall)
2. Minnesota - Evan Turner, Ohio State (Slightly poor man's version of Brandon Roy)
3. Golden State - Demarcus Cousins, Kentucky (Rasheed Wallace/ Stronger and better version of Joakim Noah)
4. Detroit - Wesley Johnson, Syracuse (Rudy Gay/Sane Stephen Jackson)
5. Indiana - Cole Aldrich, Kansas (Midwestern Joel Pryzbilla. Larry Bird won't be able to resist his whiteness).
6. Philadelphia - Derek Favors, Ga Tech (Might be good someday, hard to say)
7. Washington - Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest (There have been a lot of these guys lately doing pretty well with the uptick in tempo.. Can't have too many 6'8 athletes)
8. Sacramento - Patrick Patterson, Kentucky (Carl Landry/Jeff Green.. Can start for a good team or play significant role off bench for an elite team)
9. Utah - Greg Monroe, Georgetown (Will be a good role player because of his athletic gifts combined with his unselfishness.. Hope he slips to OKC so he can watch Durant shoot for the next ten years.. If he develops a killer instinct he could be a steal)
10. LA Clippers - Damion James, Texas (He and Blake Griffin would be fun to watch together)
11. Milwaukee - Xavier Henry, Kansas (I don't really think he will be all that good really, but he will probably go higher than he should)
12. Houston - Ed Davis, UNC (Seems like one of those guys that won't help the team that drafts him, but might end up pretty good)
13. Memphis - Avery Bradley, Texas (Just can't see him as anything more than a gunner off the bench for a good team. Has some ability, but is a tweener.)
14. OK City- Craig Brackins, Iowa State (Gotta think OKC will be looking for a big body here.. I expect OKC to do something smart though, their GM has done a great job with that team)
15. Miami - Eric Bledsoe, Kentucky (He is just as quick as John Wall, and quite a bit stronger.. Hasn't figured everything out yet, but has every physical gift.. Could easily see him going a lot higher if a team falls for him in the top ten)
16. Chicago - Stanley Robinson, UConn (Seems like he just woke up and realized he is a Senior. He is starting to figure out how to use his athletic talent. Another one of those 6'8 athlete's to take a flyer on.)
17. Minnesota - Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati (Could be next Tyreke Evans, or not ever play in the NBA... Will be interesting to see if he finds the right fit.)
18. Miami - Willie Warren, Oklahoma (See Avery Bradley.)
19. New Orleans - Trevor Booker, Clemson (Energy guy off the bench.)
20. Oklahoma City - James Anderson, OK State
Devan Downey is something of a mystery to me. I don't understand why he doesn't get more love. I can definitely see somebody taking him to be their backup PG and a sparkplug off the bench.
I think the percieved weakness of this draft can be tied to the lack of development of guys like Ed Davis, Xavier Henry and Willie Warren. Those are some of the guys that haven't gotten the most out of their abilities and are creating a cloud of gloom and doom that this draft is weak.
LOL at the Larry Bird joke in #5... classic
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